{"id":6335,"date":"2025-05-07T22:55:48","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T20:55:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rvh-synergie.org\/actualites\/la-circulation-pietonne-peut-predire-covid-19-spread-dans-les-quartiers-de-new-york\/"},"modified":"2025-05-07T22:55:49","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T20:55:49","slug":"la-circulation-pietonne-peut-predire-covid-19-spread-dans-les-quartiers-de-new-york","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rvh-synergie.org\/actualites\/la-circulation-pietonne-peut-predire-covid-19-spread-dans-les-quartiers-de-new-york\/","title":{"rendered":"La circulation pi\u00e9tonne peut pr\u00e9dire Covid-19 Spread dans les quartiers de New York"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Une nouvelle \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e dans la revue Biologie informatique PLOS<\/i> r\u00e9v\u00e8le comment les donn\u00e9es sur le trafic pi\u00e9tonnier des appareils mobiles peuvent am\u00e9liorer les pr\u00e9visions Covid-19 au niveau du quartier \u00e0 New York. La recherche, dirig\u00e9e par des chercheurs de la Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and Dalian University of Technology, fournit une nouvelle approche pour pr\u00e9dire la propagation du virus SARS-COV-2 et am\u00e9liorant les interventions de sant\u00e9 publique cibl\u00e9es lors de futures \u00e9pid\u00e9mies.<\/p>\n

La pand\u00e9mie covide-19 a frapp\u00e9 durement New York, avec des taux d’infection variant radicalement dans les quartiers. Alors que certaines r\u00e9gions ont connu une transmission rapide, d’autres ont vu des taux de transmission et des cas de transmission plus faibles, en grande partie en raison de diff\u00e9rences de facteurs socio-\u00e9conomiques, de comportement humain et d’interventions localis\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces in\u00e9galit\u00e9s, les chercheurs ont d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 un mod\u00e8le de pr\u00e9vision qui tient compte des mod\u00e8les de mobilit\u00e9 au niveau du quartier pour fournir des pr\u00e9dictions pr\u00e9cises de la propagation de la maladie. Ils ont analys\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es de localisation mobile anonymis\u00e9es pour suivre le trafic pi\u00e9tonnier dans les restaurants, les magasins de d\u00e9tail et les lieux de divertissement dans 42 quartiers. En int\u00e9grant ces mod\u00e8les de mouvement avec un mod\u00e8le \u00e9pid\u00e9mique, ils ont identifi\u00e9 o\u00f9 et quand les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies sont susceptibles de se produire.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Notre analyse montre clairement comment les activit\u00e9s de routine comme les restaurants ou les achats sont devenues les principales voies de transmission Covid-19\u00a0\u00bb, explique l’auteur principal Sen PEI, Ph.D., professeur adjoint au D\u00e9partement des sciences de la sant\u00e9 environnementale \u00e0 la Columbia Mailman School. \u00ab\u00a0Ces id\u00e9es comportementales donnent \u00e0 notre mod\u00e8le un pouvoir pr\u00e9dictif beaucoup plus important que les approches conventionnelles.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e9cision de pr\u00e9cision pour la propagation Covid-19 du quartier<\/h2>\n

Cette \u00e9tude montre comment la mod\u00e9lisation Covid-19 au niveau du quartier peut aider \u00e0 traiter les disparit\u00e9s en mati\u00e8re de sant\u00e9 en identifiant les mod\u00e8les de transmission hyperlocaux. La recherche r\u00e9v\u00e8le que des espaces int\u00e9rieurs bond\u00e9s – en particulier les restaurants et les bars – ont jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le important dans la propagation pand\u00e9mique pr\u00e9coce. En int\u00e9grant les donn\u00e9es de mobilit\u00e9 en temps r\u00e9el, l’\u00e9quipe a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 un mod\u00e8le ax\u00e9 sur le comportement qui surpasse les m\u00e9thodes de pr\u00e9vision traditionnelles pour pr\u00e9dire les cas au niveau communautaire.<\/p>\n

Un autre composant critique est l’incorporation par le mod\u00e8le des effets saisonniers. Les chercheurs ont confirm\u00e9 le risque de transmission accru de l’hiver, en le liant \u00e0 des niveaux d’humidit\u00e9 plus faibles qui prolongent la survie du virus dans l’air. Cet ajustement saisonnier permet des pr\u00e9dictions plus pr\u00e9cises \u00e0 court terme, ce qui donne aux responsables de la sant\u00e9 publique un d\u00e9lai de pr\u00e9paration crucial pour pr\u00e9parer les surtensions des infections.<\/p>\n

Un outil de r\u00e9ponse pand\u00e9mique \u00e9quitable<\/h2>\n

Le mod\u00e8le ax\u00e9 sur le comportement pourrait permettre aux services de sant\u00e9 de distribuer des tests et des ressources cliniques et des interventions de sant\u00e9 publique directes o\u00f9 elles ont le plus besoin, garantissant que la protection atteint d’abord les quartiers vuln\u00e9rables.<\/p>\n

En identifiant exactement quand et o\u00f9 les pointes de transmission se produiront probablement, l’approche remplace les conjectures par la pr\u00e9vention cibl\u00e9e. Par exemple, comme le temps froid pousse les gens \u00e0 l’int\u00e9rieur, le mod\u00e8le pourrait identifier des lieux de collecte qui n\u00e9cessiteraient des restrictions de capacit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Affiner le mod\u00e8le des futures \u00e9pid\u00e9mies<\/h2>\n

Bien que le mod\u00e8le ax\u00e9 sur le comportement se soit r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 efficace, les chercheurs notent que la mise en \u0153uvre du monde r\u00e9el n\u00e9cessite un raffinement suppl\u00e9mentaire. Un d\u00e9fi cl\u00e9 consiste \u00e0 assurer un acc\u00e8s coh\u00e9rent \u00e0 la mobilit\u00e9 et aux donn\u00e9es de cas de haute qualit\u00e9 – une limitation face pendant les premi\u00e8res phases de la pand\u00e9mie lorsque les flux d’information n’\u00e9taient pas fiables.<\/p>\n

Les chercheurs am\u00e9liorent d\u00e9sormais le mod\u00e8le pour int\u00e9grer le changement de comportement adaptatif en r\u00e9ponse aux infections et ses commentaires sur la transmission de la maladie. Ces am\u00e9liorations seront particuli\u00e8rement vitales pour la pr\u00e9paration et la r\u00e9ponse aux futures pand\u00e9mies, permettant des pr\u00e9dictions plus pr\u00e9cises des mod\u00e8les de propagation de la maladie.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Le succ\u00e8s de ce mod\u00e8le avec Covid-19 ouvre de nouvelles voies pour lutter contre les futures \u00e9pid\u00e9mies\u00a0\u00bb, explique l’EPI. \u00ab\u00a0En cartographiant la transmission des maladies au niveau communautaire, nous pouvons armer New York – et potentiellement d’autres endroits \u00e9galement – avec des informations pour prendre des d\u00e9cisions plus \u00e9clair\u00e9es lorsqu’ils se pr\u00e9parent et r\u00e9pondent aux menaces \u00e9mergentes pour la sant\u00e9.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Le premier auteur de l’\u00e9tude est Renquan Zhang, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China. Les auteurs suppl\u00e9mentaires incluent Qing Yao, Wan Yang, Kai Ruggeri et Jeffrey Shaman \u00e0 Columbia; et Jilei Tai \u00e0 l’Universit\u00e9 de technologie de Dalian.<\/p>\n

<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Une nouvelle \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e dans la revue Biologie informatique PLOS r\u00e9v\u00e8le comment les donn\u00e9es sur<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6336,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[2683,561,44,49,669,5212,799,4812,5213,1089],"class_list":["post-6335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-les-maladies","tag-circulation","tag-covid19","tag-dans","tag-les","tag-peut","tag-pietonne","tag-predire","tag-quartiers","tag-spread","tag-york","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"\nLa circulation pi\u00e9tonne peut pr\u00e9dire Covid-19 Spread dans les quartiers de New York - RVH-Synergie.org<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rvh-synergie.org\/actualites\/la-circulation-pietonne-peut-predire-covid-19-spread-dans-les-quartiers-de-new-york\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La circulation pi\u00e9tonne peut pr\u00e9dire Covid-19 Spread dans les quartiers de New York - 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