{"id":11844,"date":"2025-11-18T13:17:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T12:17:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rvh-synergie.org\/actualites\/predire-les-epidemies-a-laide-des-medias-sociaux\/"},"modified":"2025-11-18T13:17:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T12:17:27","slug":"predire-les-epidemies-a-laide-des-medias-sociaux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rvh-synergie.org\/actualites\/predire-les-epidemies-a-laide-des-medias-sociaux\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9dire les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies \u00e0 l\u2019aide des m\u00e9dias sociaux"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Les taux de vaccination diminuent dans de nombreuses communaut\u00e9s en raison d\u2019une d\u00e9sinformation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e et des maladies auparavant \u00e9limin\u00e9es ou contr\u00f4l\u00e9es comme la rougeole se multiplient aux \u00c9tats-Unis et au Canada.<\/p>\n

Des chercheurs de l’Universit\u00e9 de Waterloo ont d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 une nouvelle approche qui pourrait aider les responsables de la sant\u00e9 publique \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire o\u00f9 des \u00e9closions pourraient survenir. En analysant les publications sur les r\u00e9seaux sociaux, la m\u00e9thode identifie les premiers signes d\u2019un scepticisme croissant \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des vaccins \u2013 un signal d\u2019alarme qui pourrait appara\u00eetre avant qu\u2019une maladie ne commence \u00e0 se propager.<\/p>\n

L’\u00e9tude, \u00ab\u00a0Pr\u00e9vision des risques d’\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de maladies infectieuses \u00e0 partir des sentiments vaccinaux sur les m\u00e9dias sociaux\u00a0: une approche syst\u00e9mique dynamique bas\u00e9e sur les donn\u00e9es\u00a0\u00bb, para\u00eet dans Biosciences math\u00e9matiques et ing\u00e9nierie<\/i>.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Dans la nature, nous avons des syst\u00e8mes contagieux comme les maladies\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le Dr Chris Bauch, professeur de math\u00e9matiques appliqu\u00e9es \u00e0 Waterloo.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Nous avons d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d’examiner la dynamique sociale comme un syst\u00e8me \u00e9cologique et avons \u00e9tudi\u00e9 comment la d\u00e9sinformation peut se propager de mani\u00e8re contagieuse d’un utilisateur \u00e0 l’autre via un r\u00e9seau de m\u00e9dias sociaux.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

L\u2019\u00e9quipe a form\u00e9 un mod\u00e8le d\u2019apprentissage automatique sur le concept math\u00e9matique de point de bascule, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le moment o\u00f9 un syst\u00e8me passe soudainement \u00e0 un nouvel \u00e9tat.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Peu importe qu’il s’agisse du corps d’une personne souffrant d’une crise d’\u00e9pilepsie, d’un syst\u00e8me \u00e9cologique tel qu’un lac envahi par des algues, ou d’une perte de l’immunit\u00e9 collective au sein d’une population\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Bauch. \u00ab\u00a0Math\u00e9matiquement, il existe un m\u00e9canisme sous-jacent commun.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Pour tester leur mod\u00e8le, les chercheurs ont analys\u00e9 des dizaines de milliers de publications publiques sur X (anciennement Twitter) en Californie juste avant une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie majeure de rougeole en 2014. Les m\u00e9thodes traditionnelles, comme le simple comptage des tweets sceptiques, fournissaient tr\u00e8s peu d’avertissements avant l’\u00e9pid\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Les m\u00e9thodes habituelles de pr\u00e9vision d’une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie en effectuant une analyse statistique des tweets sceptiques ne donnent pas beaucoup de temps avant une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Bauch. \u00ab\u00a0En utilisant la th\u00e9orie math\u00e9matique des points de basculement, nous avons pu obtenir un d\u00e9lai d’ex\u00e9cution beaucoup plus long et d\u00e9tecter des mod\u00e8les dans les donn\u00e9es beaucoup plus efficacement.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Ils ont v\u00e9rifi\u00e9 l’exactitude de la m\u00e9thode du \u00ab point de basculement \u00bb en comparant les mod\u00e8les de d\u00e9tachement en Californie \u00e0 ceux de zones comparables \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s au m\u00eame moment, o\u00f9 aucune \u00e9pid\u00e9mie ne s’est produite.<\/p>\n

Cette recherche refl\u00e8te l’engagement de Waterloo \u00e0 renforcer la prise de d\u00e9cision fond\u00e9e sur des donn\u00e9es probantes et la confiance du public dans la science, un objectif central du r\u00e9seau Societal Futures de l’Universit\u00e9 et de sa nouvelle initiative TRuST, qui rassemble des philosophes, des informaticiens, des communicateurs et des \u00e9thiciens pour comprendre pourquoi la confiance dans la science vacille et comment la reconstruire.<\/p>\n

Initialement test\u00e9 sur X, le mod\u00e8le peut \u00eatre facilement adapt\u00e9 pour TikTok ou Instagram ; cependant, cela n\u00e9cessiterait plus de ressources informatiques pour analyser les images et les vid\u00e9os par rapport au format principalement textuel de X.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0En fin de compte, nous aimerions transformer cela en un outil permettant aux responsables de la sant\u00e9 publique de surveiller quelles populations sont les plus \u00e0 risque d’atteindre un point de basculement\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Bauch.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Les math\u00e9matiques appliqu\u00e9es peuvent constituer un outil quantitatif puissant permettant de pr\u00e9voir, de surveiller et de r\u00e9pondre aux menaces pour la sant\u00e9 publique.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les taux de vaccination diminuent dans de nombreuses communaut\u00e9s en raison d\u2019une d\u00e9sinformation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e et<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11845,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[16,636,910,49,2530,799,2107],"class_list":["post-11844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-les-maladies","tag-des","tag-epidemies","tag-laide","tag-les","tag-medias","tag-predire","tag-sociaux","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9dire les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies \u00e0 l\u2019aide des m\u00e9dias sociaux - RVH-Synergie.org<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rvh-synergie.org\/actualites\/predire-les-epidemies-a-laide-des-medias-sociaux\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9dire les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies \u00e0 l\u2019aide des m\u00e9dias sociaux - 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